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Spring 2026 Submitted May 2026

The Geopolitics of AI Middle Powers

Adam Hassan, Giulio Bernasconi, Barbara Marchiori de Assis, Caleb Peppiatt

Mentored by Aris Richardson

International governance US-China governance

Working report from the SPAR program. May not reflect the authors' current views.

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Abstract

This report contains five projects on the geopolitics of AI and middle powers, covering the following topics:

  • The state of foreign funding into U.S. and Chinese frontier AI labs.
  • ASML's role in geopolitics and its limited leverage over the U.S.
  • A set of levers that can be used by middle powers to influence U.S. AI policy
  • The role of middle powers in cybersecurity governance and what AI middle powers can learn from precedents in cybersecurity
  • Coalitions of middle powers may help decelerate racing through supporting multi-track diplomacy, norm entrepreneurship, and conflict mediation.