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Spring 2026 Submitted May 2026

Vulnerability Analysis for AI Crisis Preparedness

Arnav Saxena, Bailey Hirota

Mentored by Isaak Mengesha

Working report from the SPAR program. May not reflect the authors' current views.

Abstract

AI safety efforts are heavily focused on prevention, yet complex failures will still occur in real-world conditions. This paper analyzes a set of AI-induced crisis scenarios to identify the institutional and coordination capacities required once harm begins to unfold. Using structured failure-mode decomposition across six crisis response mission areas, we map stressors, failure points, and re- sponse needs across scenarios. We find that recurring gaps, particularly in detection, cross-actor coordination, and containment, systematically limit the ability to contain high-impact failures.