From Rivalry to Restraint: A US–China Treaty Framework for Governing Artificial Superintelligence

As artificial superintelligence (ASI) becomes more technically viable, the risk of an arms race between the United States and China grows. This paper proposes a phased, enforceable treaty designed to reduce that risk by using mutual vulnerability to align incentives. Drawing on lessons from nuclear arms control, the treaty includes verifiable limits on compute and model training, telemetry-based inspections, and bilateral emergency protocols. Unlike frameworks based on voluntary norms, this model integrates oversight into national security infrastructure, making coordination possible even without trust. It addresses near-term safety risks and long-term shifts in global power, offering a strategy that reflects current geopolitical conditions. The treaty is built to function under rivalry, not consensus, and includes mechanisms for adaptability in the face of political change or external disruption. While focused on the U.S. and China, the structure could support future multilateral expansion as other actors approach ASI capabilities.